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This discussion has been closed on Feb 4, 2016 - 06:39 am as off-topic.

This topic is a matter of a fact, not an opinion.

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User voted Yes.
5 votes
Nov 7, 2015

Yes, but it is exceedingly slim.

Trump is like a lot of candidates before him, from Santorum to Perry, who galvanize the extreme right wing of the party during the primaries. Out-and-out white supremacists, people with a tremendous amount of anger at minorities, and people generally angry at a system that they perceive as liberal flock to people like that.

But anger by its very nature tends to burn out, especially when someone isn't getting something in exchange. Trump is now being out-Trumped by people like Carson. And as one gets closer to actually having to tick that box and vote for a guy, people tend to start remembering the ugliness. It's one thing to yell on Facebook about how great someone else is. It's another thing to actually say, even privately, "I endorse not just these policies but this attitude and this way of achieving those policies. I believe this guy can beat the other side".

If Trump wins the primaries, there is a very slight chance that he can win. He has a huge amount of money. But he also has a tremendous amount of pressure points that people can hit. He can be outflanked from the right who can point out his very questionable Christian bona fides, his libertine leanings, his long affiliation with liberals prior to 2010, and a host of other traits. And anyone even very slightly left-leaning or who does not identify as a white voter is going to be turned off by his misogyny, racial hysterics and racebaiting, and total lack of political acumen. Most polls have him losing badly to Sanders in that race. This being a presidential election, people will turn up to the polls. Debates have not proven actually all that good for him thus far, and I suspect that in a debate with Sanders or Clinton he'd be pretty roundly embarrassed. And while conservatives probably would not stomach voting for a democratic socialist, Trump may be a big enough pill to swallow that they decide to stay home.

I really wish that Trump were someone more like Ross Perot, who I disagreed with sharply but who really did try to present his viewpoints in a careful way to people. Trump is from a soundbite era.

User voted Yes.
2 votes
Nov 14, 2015

Of course he has a chance at the Presidency, and anyone who legally qualifies does to an extent. Democracy isn't a precise science, so we can't empirically establish who is going to win the election next year. It could be George Pataki for all we know (although that significantly less likely).

Right now the GOP have a crowded field and there's still a long way to go. But any of the serious contenders could end up in the White House, including Mr Trump. Just depends how the votes go and how the states fall. Let's also remember Mr Trump is still leading, which gives him an even better shot then most of the GOP contenders right now.

Meanwhile I'll be preparing my bunker for a Trump presidency... better safe than sorry!

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